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US stock futures retreated on Monday as Iran and President Trump traded war threats, raising tensions and stakes in a Middle East conflict that risks a brutal hit to the global economy.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) dropped roughly 0.5%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell 0.6%. Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) led the losses, down 0.7%.
Stocks are poised for yet another bruising day as the Middle East conflict enters its fourth week on the brink of major escalation. Risks built over the weekend, as the exchange of violent rhetoric between the US and Iran intensified. Trump said he didn’t want a ceasefire before giving Iran an ultimatum on Saturday, saying that if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed after 48 hours, he would order attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. On Monday, Tehran launched fresh attacks after promising retaliation.
Oil prices continue to rise, stoking market worries about a knock-on effect in higher prices, the Federal Reserve’s inflation outlook, and across industries. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude futures jumped to above $100 a barrel again, while global benchmark Brent (BZ=F) crude futures surged to top $113.
Meanwhile, gold (GC=F) futures erased their 2026 gains amid concerns that rising inflationary pressure could prompt Fed policymakers to hold off from cutting interest rates this year.
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Bonds lose $2.5 trillion in Iran war wipeout that mirrors 2022
From Bloomberg:
The specter of stagflation caused by the Iran war has wiped out more than $2.5 trillion from the value of global bonds in March, on track for the biggest monthly loss in more than three years.
Bonds are tumbling as a surge in oil prices quickens inflation, which erodes the value of the fixed payments from debt. While the slide in bonds’ market value is less than the roughly $11.5 trillion lost in global equities, it’s perhaps more unexpected as debt typically gains in times of geopolitical turmoil.
“Markets are beginning to price what I think is going to be a stagflationary impulse manifested very soon,” Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at StoneX Group Inc., said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “The longer this goes on, the higher oil prices can rise.”
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Oil pushes higher as clock ticks on Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum
Bloomberg reports:
Oil gained from the highest close since mid-2022, as investors assessed President Donald Trump’s two-day ultimatum to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran’s threat of reprisals.
Brent rose above $113 a barrel, up for a fifth day, while West Texas Intermediate was near $100. Trump said Iran must “fully open” the waterway within 48 hours, or have its power plants bombed. Tehran warned it would attack key infrastructure across the Middle East if Trump followed through.
Global benchmark Brent has surged by more than 50% since the strikes by the US and Israel on Iran began in late February. The conflict has shown no signs of abating, with key petroleum-product markets rallying even harder than crude. That’s threatened to unleash a wave of global inflation, bringing turmoil to financial markets from commodities to stocks and bonds.
“Now with this 48-hour deadline, Trump has posted himself into a corner,” said Rory Johnston, oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context Corp. “It is highly unlikely that Tehran will agree to Trump’s terms on such an accelerated timeline under the threat of attack. And Iran is clearly able and willing to match any escalation.”
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Gold winds back yearly gains after largest weekly drop since 1983
Yahoo Finance’s Ines Ferré reports:
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Oil trades down as Trump threatens Iran power infrastructure, Goldman Sachs raises price targets
Oil traded slight below last week’s closing prices at the start of futures trading on Sunday, with roughly 24 hours to go on President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran.
Futures prices on Brent crude (BZ=F), the international pricing benchmark, initially surged but quickly gave up gains in the minutes after the open on Sunday, trading around $106 per barrel. Those on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) changed hands around $97.90 per barrel.
In a post on Truth Social at 6:45 p.m. ET on Saturday, President Trump said Iran had 48 hours to “FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz,” or else “within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!”
The threat by the US president comes after a week of attacks by the Iranian regime against energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG export terminal — the world’s largest such facility.
In a note to clients on Sunday evening, Goldman Sachs’ oil desk, led by head of oil research Daan Struyven, raised its price targets for oil, now looking for Brent to trade at $110 per barrel through March and April, up from a previous call for $98 per barrel over the same timeframe under the assumption that “Hormuz flows remain at only 5% of normal levels for a longer 6-week period before a gradual 1-month recovery.”
The bank is now assuming an average 2026 price of $85 and $79 per barrel, respectively, for Brent and WTI, up from previous estimate of $77 and $72 per barrel for the two benchmarks. In 2027, Goldman expects Brent and WTI to average $80 and $75 per barrel, respectively.
“In the short-run, the market is likely to require a growing risk premium to generate precautionary demand destruction to hedge against shortages in longer disruptions risk scenarios,” Goldman’s Struyven, Yulia Grigsby, and Alexandra Paulus wrote.
“A recognition of the risks from the high concentration of production and spare capacity is likely to lead to structurally higher strategic stockpiling and long-dated prices.”
