by Estefano Gomez
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Clashes between Iranian forces and U.S. special forces continue, with the evacuation of a second pilot underway. Odds for US forces entering Iran by April 30 have jumped to 86% YES, up from 62% yesterday.
This confirms U.S. ground operations inside Iran, driving the April 30 market to 86% YES. The December 31 market also rose to 90% YES, indicating confidence in sustained operations. A 4-point spike occurred at 2:14 PM.
The market trades $5.9M daily, with USDC volume at $4.1M. It takes $84,737 to shift the price by 5 points, showing strong liquidity, likely from institutional players. Today’s largest move was a 4-point spike, pointing to a significant order.
This report from a third-tier source supports the idea of entrenched U.S. ground involvement in Iran. A YES share at 86¢ pays $1 if confirmed by April 30, offering a 1.16x return. With 27 days left, traders seem convinced of ongoing operations. Contrarians might watch for US-Iran de-escalation signals to shift odds.
Watch for statements from Trump, the Pentagon press secretary, or the IRGC’s next move. Any announcement of new ground operations or strategic changes will impact these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 86.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 90.5% YES
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez.
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