The Week Ahead: Nvidia Earnings, Bond Yields, and Key Retail Results to Watch

TLDR

• Nvidia reports first-quarter earnings Wednesday, with analysts expecting $1.78 EPS and $79.2 billion in revenue
• The S&P 500 closed Friday down 1.2%, ending a seven-week winning streak on a weak note
• The 10-year Treasury yield pushed past 4.5%, keeping pressure on markets
• Energy strategist Jeff Currie of Carlyle Group says commodities may be entering a multi-year supercycle
• Walmart reports Thursday, with inflation and consumer spending in focus after CPI hit 3.8% in April

Investors head into this week carrying some baggage. Stocks slid on Friday, bond yields climbed, and geopolitical tensions from the Trump-Xi summit are still hanging over markets.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.2% on Friday, though it still managed a slim 0.1% weekly gain — its seventh straight week of gains. The Nasdaq fell 1.5% Friday, ending the week down about 0.1%. The Dow also closed the week lower, off 0.2%.

The 10-year Treasury yield moved firmly above 4.5% on Friday, a level that has historically made equity investors nervous. That number will stay on traders’ radar as the week opens.

This week’s calendar is lighter than recent weeks, but one event towers above the rest.

Nvidia Earnings Take Center Stage

Nvidia is set to report first-quarter results on Wednesday after the market closes. It is the most valuable company in the world, having crossed the $5.7 trillion mark last week.

#earnings for the week of May 18, 2026https://t.co/hLn2sKQhEY$NVDA $ELF $ADI $NIO $INTU $BIDU $DECK $HD $BULL $WMT $DE $VFC $VRT $KEYS $ZIM $ZM $TTWO $TGT $CAVA $AGYS $TOL $WDAY $LOW $ARCO $TOYO $URBN $WMS $AS $HAS $CPRT $GDS $SBLK $NDSN $FATN $STEP $RL $AAP $ECC $NRXP $TJX… pic.twitter.com/H4FF3S009Q

— Earnings Whispers (@eWhispers) May 15, 2026

Analysts are expecting adjusted earnings of $1.78 per share and revenue of $79.2 billion.

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In March, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said demand for the company’s hardware and software was “off the charts.” He doubled projections for two key product lines, saying they could bring in more than $1 trillion by end of 2026.

Huang recently traveled to China alongside President Trump, meeting with officials and business leaders. Investors will be listening for any comments about deals or agreements made during that trip.

🇺🇸🇨🇳🚨CHINA CONFIRMS THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP LEFT BEIJING EMPTY-HANDED:

– NO agreement on Iran.
– NO concessions on Taiwan.
– NO H200 deal.
– NO decision on rare earth trucks.
– NO release of Jimmy Lai, and fewer Boeing aircraft orders than expected.

It was just a holiday trip… pic.twitter.com/jqfeKPTOQe

— JackTheRippler ©️ (@RippleXrpie) May 16, 2026

Reuters reported last week that Chinese companies including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com are now approved to buy Nvidia’s H200 chips. That news pushed shares to a new all-time high on Thursday before a pullback on Friday.

Despite the strong run, UBS analyst Tim Arcuri noted that many large investors have shown little enthusiasm heading into the print, which could set the stage for a positive reaction if results are strong.

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya flagged that investors will also watch for any commentary on competition from Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, and newer chip company Cerebrus, which went public last week.

Walmart, Retail, and the Consumer Picture

Walmart reports Thursday morning. Investors will be watching closely given that the Consumer Price Index showed a 3.8% annual increase in April, driven largely by rising fuel costs.

Last quarter, Walmart said its shoppers appeared “resilient.” The question this week is whether that holds.

Target also reports Wednesday. New CEO Michael Fiddelke has outlined plans to return the company to growth. Home Depot and Lowe’s report Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, though both retailers have seen pressure as housing market activity stays slow.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data drops Friday, rounding out the week’s economic picture.

Could Commodities Be Entering a Supercycle?

Energy strategist Jeff Currie of Carlyle Group posted a detailed argument on Friday suggesting the market may be at the start of a multi-year commodity rally.

Currie pointed to AI’s growing demand for physical infrastructure — energy, metals, and computing capacity — as one driver. He also cited the Iran conflict, which Goldman Sachs says has removed more than 13.7 million barrels of oil per day from the market, the largest energy supply shock on record.

Currie argues capital has flowed toward the AI trade while the physical assets needed to run AI have been underinvested. He believes that imbalance is now starting to correct.