The metals market may be entering a phase of clear divergence. While gold’s record-breaking run appears vulnerable to shifting macro conditions, silver’s blend of industrial demand, supply deficit, and investor rotation keeps it positioned for another year of outperformance, Citi’s commodities research head Max Layton told CNBC-TV18.
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Gold may have dominated headlines through 2025 with 45 record highs and one of its strongest yearly performances since the late 1970s, but its extraordinary run may be nearing a pause. According to Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi, the metal could lose momentum in 2026 as several key macro drivers fade.
Layton told CNBC-TV18 that a confluence of factors — from heavy institutional buying to geopolitical fears and an 8% drop in the dollar index — powered gold from $2,600 to $4,200 this year. But with President Trump’s tariff reset largely complete and US growth sentiment starting to improve, one of the biggest supports for gold prices may now be weakening.
Citi has shifted to a neutral-to-bearish stance for the next 6–12 months. “Our concern is not that gold will fall much but that it won’t go up,” Layton said, adding that gold could ease to $3,600–$3,800 by end-2026 in Citi’s base case.
Yet the story is less straightforward than a simple cooldown. Layton still assigns a 30% probability to a bull case where strong institutional flows — including possible shifts from sovereign debt to gold — push the metal as high as $5,000 by end-2026 and even $6,000 by end-2027.
But while gold appears set for a breather, silver is the one to watch.
Silver has already doubled this year, comfortably breaking above $50 an ounce amid a five-year supply deficit and robust industrial demand. Citi expects that outperformance to continue, projecting another move higher to $62 in the baseline scenario and up to $70 in a bullish outlook.
“Silver is a little more growthy,” Layton explained, noting that investor allocations are already shifting from gold into silver, copper, aluminium and other growth-linked metals as markets turn more optimistic about the US economy in the coming months.
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The combined picture sets up a clear divergence in precious metals:
- Gold: entering a consolidation phase
- Silver: gearing up for another breakout
As 2026 approaches, the balance of opportunity, according to Citi, is tilting toward the industrial and growth-driven end of the metals spectrum — with silver leading the way.
Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.
