Premium Content
By Michael Kern – Apr 01, 2025, 9:00 AM CDT
Oil markets are on edge as Trump prepares to roll out his tariff plan, with commodities around the world set for significant disruptions in the coming weeks.
– European gas and utility companies have moved into the spring replenishment season of 2025, although the lack of pricing downside creates no real incentive to buy natural gas on the market.
– Gas inventories across the EU have started April being 33% full, with leading nations Germany and France seeing even lower stocks at 28% and 24.5%, respectively, after an unusually cold winter and halted Russian pipeline gas flows via Ukraine.
– The rules of the European Commission stipulate that storage sites across the EU ought to be 90% full by November 1, a rule first introduced in 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine war was raging on, with French and German proposals to add flexibility to binding targets falling on deaf ears in Brussels.
– Europe’s benchmark TTF futures have converged to a €41-42 per MWh range ($14 per mmBtu) throughout this year, with March 2026 marking the first monthly contract that trades below €40 per MWh.
Market Movers
– Activist investor Elliott Investment Management sued one of the US’ largest refining firms, Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), after building up a $2.5 billion stake in the company, citing the need to force P66 to comply with its own charter.
– US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has reiterated its interest in hydrocarbon exploration off the Greek island of Crete in the Mediterranean Sea, seeking to build on its assets in Israel and Egypt.
– London-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) quit all its wind and solar generation projects in Brazil, citing an unfavourable investment climate, although it still owns the country’s largest ethanol producer Raizen.
– Canada’s top investment fund Brookfield Corporation (NYSE:BN) is reportedly closing in on a deal to purchase Colonial Pipeline, the US’ largest fuel transportation system, paying some $9 billion after trumping other bidders in an auction process.
Tuesday, April 01, 2025
Trump and disruption, the two key words of this week, resonate across all markets as almost every single commodity could see disruptions after the US President rolls out his April 2 tariff plan. With pressure mounting on Venezuela, OPEC+ pressurizing Kazakhstan into compliance, and Trump flaunting secondary sanctions on Russia, ICE Brent is within arm’s reach of $75 per barrel.
US Ready to Unveil New Tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’. US President Donald Trump is set to unveil new tariffs targeting specific countries that have trade surpluses with the US on April 2, pledging to ‘roll back unfair trade practices’ of EU countries or even Japan, adding volatility to this week’s trading.
Trump Mulls US Deep Sea Mining Options. The White House is reportedly mulling the issuance of an executive order that would fast-track deep sea mining project permits in international waters, letting mining companies bypass a UN-sponsored process as the US still hasn’t ratified UNCLOS.
European Oil Majors Barred from Venezuela. The US Treasury Department has revoked waivers that allowed Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol to operate in Venezuela and import crude from their respective projects as part of crude-for-debt payments, impacting some 50,000 b/d of production.
Draught Limits German River Navigation. Germany might see a replay of its 2022 drought conditions as water levels on the Rhine River started to hamper shipping, with the key chokepoint of Kaub already shrinking to a mere 1.05m in depth, boosting freight rates and putting pressure on diesel.
Vitol-Backed Refiner Buys Up Sweden’s Refineries. Varo Energy, co-owned by Vitol and PE giant Carlyle Group, has agreed to purchase Swedish refiner Preem in an all-cash deal for an undisclosed sum, boosting its portfolio with two refineries in Lysekil and Gothenburg, totalling 350,000 b/d of capacity.
Kazakhstan Overtly Defies OPEC+ Mandate. The Central Asian nation of Kazakhstan continues to boost its oil and condensate production amidst the Tengiz field’s expansion, posting an all-time high in March with 2.17 million b/d produced despite its OPEC+ quota staying at 1.468 million b/d.
Russia Pressures Kazakh Producers to Comply. Seeing record output from Kazakhstan, Russia seems to be forcing oil exporters using the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to cut production as it closed two of the port’s three available moorings, citing an alleged snap inspection over a December oil spill.
Norway’s Long-Awaited Arctic Field Is On. Norway’s Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) has officially launched the Johan Castberg field in the Arctic Barents Sea after a three-month delay, seeking to bring it to its nameplate capacity of 220,000 b/d over the next years and garnering some $8 billion by 2027.
Myanmar Earthquake Rattles Tin Markets. Prices of tin rose to two-week highs this week after a 7.7 magnitude earthquake damaged large parts of Myanmar, the world’s third-largest producer, sending LME benchmark futures above $36,500 per metric tonne and inverting the curve to backwardation.
Mine Blast Could Halt Coal Price Collapse. Australia’s safety regulators have suspended operations at Anglo American’s (LON:AAL) Moranbah North coking coal mine in Queensland after a carbon monoxide-induced explosion, potentially cutting global supply by some 5-6 million tonnes per year.
Shuttered Russian LNG Plant Flares Again. The Arctic LNG 2 liquefaction plant in Russia’s Arctic North has started to flare gas again after halting all operations last October, with stringent US sanctions on LNG carriers affiliated with project operator Novatek prompting a full winter stop.
Gold Is Still Flying High. Gold prices surged to another record high on Tuesday, touching 3,148 per ounce in intraday trading, as the anticipation of the Trump Administration’s April 2 tariffs boosting the safe-haven appeal of the bullion, having already posted its strongest quarter since 1986.
Japan Keeps on Boosting US Shale Portfolio. Tokyo Gas’ (TYO:9531) investment vehicle TG Natural Resources, jointly operated with Castleton Commodities, bought a 70% stake in Chevron’s East Texas gas assets in the Haynesville Basin, building on its 2023 acquisition of Rockcliff Energy for $2.7 billion.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
- Trump: 25% Tariff On Anyone Who Buys Venezuelan Oil & Gas
- Iraq Hands BP Final Approval for Kirkuk Oil Development
- Equinor’s Giant New Arctic Find Starts Pumping to Recoup $8B in 2 Years
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Premium Content
By Michael Kern – Apr 01, 2025, 9:00 AM CDT
Oil markets are on edge as Trump prepares to roll out his tariff plan, with commodities around the world set for significant disruptions in the coming weeks.
– European gas and utility companies have moved into the spring replenishment season of 2025, although the lack of pricing downside creates no real incentive to buy natural gas on the market.
– Gas inventories across the EU have started April being 33% full, with leading nations Germany and France seeing even lower stocks at 28% and 24.5%, respectively, after an unusually cold winter and halted Russian pipeline gas flows via Ukraine.
– The rules of the European Commission stipulate that storage sites across the EU ought to be 90% full by November 1, a rule first introduced in 2022 as the Russia-Ukraine war was raging on, with French and German proposals to add flexibility to binding targets falling on deaf ears in Brussels.
– Europe’s benchmark TTF futures have converged to a €41-42 per MWh range ($14 per mmBtu) throughout this year, with March 2026 marking the first monthly contract that trades below €40 per MWh.
Market Movers
– Activist investor Elliott Investment Management sued one of the US’ largest refining firms, Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX), after building up a $2.5 billion stake in the company, citing the need to force P66 to comply with its own charter.
– US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has reiterated its interest in hydrocarbon exploration off the Greek island of Crete in the Mediterranean Sea, seeking to build on its assets in Israel and Egypt.
– London-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) quit all its wind and solar generation projects in Brazil, citing an unfavourable investment climate, although it still owns the country’s largest ethanol producer Raizen.
– Canada’s top investment fund Brookfield Corporation (NYSE:BN) is reportedly closing in on a deal to purchase Colonial Pipeline, the US’ largest fuel transportation system, paying some $9 billion after trumping other bidders in an auction process.
Tuesday, April 01, 2025
Trump and disruption, the two key words of this week, resonate across all markets as almost every single commodity could see disruptions after the US President rolls out his April 2 tariff plan. With pressure mounting on Venezuela, OPEC+ pressurizing Kazakhstan into compliance, and Trump flaunting secondary sanctions on Russia, ICE Brent is within arm’s reach of $75 per barrel.
US Ready to Unveil New Tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’. US President Donald Trump is set to unveil new tariffs targeting specific countries that have trade surpluses with the US on April 2, pledging to ‘roll back unfair trade practices’ of EU countries or even Japan, adding volatility to this week’s trading.
Trump Mulls US Deep Sea Mining Options. The White House is reportedly mulling the issuance of an executive order that would fast-track deep sea mining project permits in international waters, letting mining companies bypass a UN-sponsored process as the US still hasn’t ratified UNCLOS.
European Oil Majors Barred from Venezuela. The US Treasury Department has revoked waivers that allowed Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol to operate in Venezuela and import crude from their respective projects as part of crude-for-debt payments, impacting some 50,000 b/d of production.
Draught Limits German River Navigation. Germany might see a replay of its 2022 drought conditions as water levels on the Rhine River started to hamper shipping, with the key chokepoint of Kaub already shrinking to a mere 1.05m in depth, boosting freight rates and putting pressure on diesel.
Vitol-Backed Refiner Buys Up Sweden’s Refineries. Varo Energy, co-owned by Vitol and PE giant Carlyle Group, has agreed to purchase Swedish refiner Preem in an all-cash deal for an undisclosed sum, boosting its portfolio with two refineries in Lysekil and Gothenburg, totalling 350,000 b/d of capacity.
Kazakhstan Overtly Defies OPEC+ Mandate. The Central Asian nation of Kazakhstan continues to boost its oil and condensate production amidst the Tengiz field’s expansion, posting an all-time high in March with 2.17 million b/d produced despite its OPEC+ quota staying at 1.468 million b/d.
Russia Pressures Kazakh Producers to Comply. Seeing record output from Kazakhstan, Russia seems to be forcing oil exporters using the Caspian Pipeline Consortium to cut production as it closed two of the port’s three available moorings, citing an alleged snap inspection over a December oil spill.
Norway’s Long-Awaited Arctic Field Is On. Norway’s Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) has officially launched the Johan Castberg field in the Arctic Barents Sea after a three-month delay, seeking to bring it to its nameplate capacity of 220,000 b/d over the next years and garnering some $8 billion by 2027.
Myanmar Earthquake Rattles Tin Markets. Prices of tin rose to two-week highs this week after a 7.7 magnitude earthquake damaged large parts of Myanmar, the world’s third-largest producer, sending LME benchmark futures above $36,500 per metric tonne and inverting the curve to backwardation.
Mine Blast Could Halt Coal Price Collapse. Australia’s safety regulators have suspended operations at Anglo American’s (LON:AAL) Moranbah North coking coal mine in Queensland after a carbon monoxide-induced explosion, potentially cutting global supply by some 5-6 million tonnes per year.
Shuttered Russian LNG Plant Flares Again. The Arctic LNG 2 liquefaction plant in Russia’s Arctic North has started to flare gas again after halting all operations last October, with stringent US sanctions on LNG carriers affiliated with project operator Novatek prompting a full winter stop.
Gold Is Still Flying High. Gold prices surged to another record high on Tuesday, touching 3,148 per ounce in intraday trading, as the anticipation of the Trump Administration’s April 2 tariffs boosting the safe-haven appeal of the bullion, having already posted its strongest quarter since 1986.
Japan Keeps on Boosting US Shale Portfolio. Tokyo Gas’ (TYO:9531) investment vehicle TG Natural Resources, jointly operated with Castleton Commodities, bought a 70% stake in Chevron’s East Texas gas assets in the Haynesville Basin, building on its 2023 acquisition of Rockcliff Energy for $2.7 billion.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com
- Trump: 25% Tariff On Anyone Who Buys Venezuelan Oil & Gas
- Iraq Hands BP Final Approval for Kirkuk Oil Development
- Equinor’s Giant New Arctic Find Starts Pumping to Recoup $8B in 2 Years
Download The Free Oilprice App Today
